Jazz Take New Path to Last in Standings

Understanding the Jazz's Strategy: A Deep Dive into Their Tanking Approach

The Utah Jazz have long been a team known for their strategic moves, but recent decisions have raised questions about their approach to rebuilding. When Austin Ainge, son of former Jazz general manager Danny Ainge, was appointed to replace his father, he made it clear that the team would no longer engage in "tanking." However, the actions taken since then suggest a different story.

Ainge’s initial statement at his press conference indicated a shift away from intentional losses. Yet, within weeks, the Jazz made a series of significant trades that appear to contradict this promise. These moves include sending John Collins to the Clippers in exchange for Kevin Love, Kyle Anderson, and a 2027 second-round draft pick. This trade follows other moves where Collin Sexton was sent to the Hornets for Jusuf Nurkic, and Jordan Clarkson’s contract was bought out.

The combined average of Collins, Clarkson, and Sexton last season was 53.5 points per game, highlighting the talent the Jazz are now parting with. According to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, the issue with Collins was his productivity. The Jazz limited him to just 40 games last year, even going to great lengths to ensure he didn’t play in many of those games. The logic here is that if Collins was too effective, he might lead the team to more wins than they wanted.

The Evolution of the Jazz's Tanking Strategy

The Jazz's tanking strategy began when they traded away their five best players, including All-Stars Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, at the end of the 2022 season. In exchange, they received 11 first-round draft picks. This move marked the start of a multi-year plan to rebuild through the draft.

The losing continued until the 2023-24 season, when the Jazz found themselves competing for a playoff spot with a 26-26 record. They won 12 of 14 games during one stretch, which was deemed too much winning for a proper tank. As a result, the Jazz traded away three more players in exchange for two more first-round picks.

This latest move involves casting off Collins, Sexton, and Clarkson, heading into Year 4 of the Tank. The Jazz have fallen from a league-leading 52 wins in the 2020-21 season to 49 wins the following year, then 37, 31, and finally a league-worst 17 wins. In five years, they went from having the best record in the league to the worst.

The Impact of the NBA's Lottery System

Tanking isn't paying off anytime soon, and that's exactly how the NBA wants it. The lottery system gives the three worst teams only 14% odds of securing the first overall pick in the draft, with the fourth-worst team coming in at 12.5%. The idea was to prevent tanking by no longer automatically rewarding the last-place team with the first overall pick. However, this has not prevented tanking but has certainly reduced the reward for the last-place team.

Since the lottery system was adopted in 1985, the team with the worst regular-season record has won the lottery only six times, the last time occurring in 2018. The Jazz’s NBA-worst 65 losses last season netted them only the fifth overall pick.

Despite these challenges, the Jazz are staying the course and playing the long game. It's obvious that if they wanted to win immediately, they wouldn’t have traded away Collins, Sexton, and Clarkson.

Fan Loyalty and the Future of the Jazz

The headline in the Deseret News this week read, “After trading John Collins, the Utah Jazz are now the front-runners to be the worst team in the NBA — again.” This might be a good time to ask yourself if all this tanking is worth it for fans. Imagine any business announcing that for the foreseeable future they are going to sell an inferior product, but please keep buying our product. So far, fans are riding it out.

The Jazz’s summer league games filled the lower bowl of the Huntsman Center. The Jazz had the 15th highest attendance in the NBA last season. They were one of 12 teams who sold out every game last season, despite all the losing. That looks like a vote of confidence for the Ainges.